Every summer, fantasy drafters obsess over the same three or four tight ends at the top of the board. But the real edge often sits several rounds later, where ADP and actual talent stop matching up. Here’s where the gap looks widest heading into 2026 drafts.
Jake Ferguson enters a different world than his box score suggests
Ferguson set career highs across the board in 2025 — 82 catches, 600 yards, eight touchdowns, playing all 17 games. On paper, that’s a breakout. But dig into the context and it’s more complicated: his yards per catch dropped to a career-low 7.3, and per FantasyPros, he finished as the TE13 in points-per-game among tight ends who played at least five games, despite the strong counting stats.
The bigger swing factor is George Pickens. Dallas added him alongside CeeDee Lamb, and 4for4’s analysis notes that duo combined for 250 targets last season, squeezing Ferguson further down the pecking order and making him more touchdown-dependent than his current ADP — TE11, coming off the board in the middle of Round 10 — implies. This is a real shift from where his outlook stood before Pickens’ arrival.
That said, not everyone’s bearish. RotoBaller points out that in stretches last season when Lamb missed time, Ferguson saw the fourth-most targets in the league through five weeks and briefly paced as the fantasy TE1 — insurance value that’s rare that late in drafts. The honest read: Ferguson’s floor still justifies a Round 10-11 pick, but calling him a lock for a top-eight finish ignores how crowded that Dallas passing game has become.
Kyle Pitts is either a bargain or a trap, and quarterback play decides which
Pitts finally delivered in 2025 — 88 catches, 928 yards, five touchdowns, a real TE2 finish after years of frustration for the fantasy managers who stuck with him. The catch, according to Dynasty Nerds, is that his best stretch came with Kirk Cousins at quarterback and Drake London banged up — conditions that won’t necessarily repeat.
Atlanta now has a Michael Penix Jr.-Tua Tagovailoa competition at the position, which injects real uncertainty into who’s throwing Pitts the ball come September. Some analysts view that instability as a reason to sell high on Pitts rather than draft him with confidence. It’s a fair worry. But if the Falcons’ passing game holds together at even a league-average level, Pitts’ price this year still looks like a discount on a player who just proved he can finish as a top-two fantasy tight end.
Tyler Warren might be the single best value at the position
Warren’s rookie season was already strong — 76 catches, 817 yards, four touchdowns, a TE4 finish overall despite fading in the season’s second half, per Fantasy Football Calculator. What’s changed since then matters more: Indianapolis traded Michael Pittman Jr. to Pittsburgh, clearing out the receiver who was competing with Warren for the passing game’s top target share.
Dynasty Nerds frames it plainly — with Pittman gone, Warren’s target share should keep climbing, and at 23 years old with an ADP around the start of Round 4 (pick 60 in some data sets, per FantasySP), he’s being drafted like a very good TE2 rather than a player with legitimate top-two upside at the position. Multiple outlets have him grouped in the same tier as Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, and Brock Bowers talent-wise — he’s just going rounds later.
The bottom line
None of these are locks — Ferguson’s target competition, Pitts’ quarterback uncertainty, and Warren’s second-half rookie fade are all real risk factors, not footnotes. But value in fantasy comes from betting on upside the market hasn’t fully priced in yet, and at their current draft slots, all three are being treated more conservatively than their talent or opportunity suggests.
