Tua Tagovailoa spent his final season in Miami looking like a shell of the quarterback who once led the NFL in passing yards. Now, with a fresh start in Atlanta, one national analyst thinks he could author one of the more surprising redemption stories of the 2026 NFL season.
Bleacher Report’s Alex Kay named Tagovailoa a dark-horse candidate for the Associated Press Comeback Player of the Year award in a July prediction piece covering every major NFL honor. It’s not a bold prediction so much as a long-shot one — Tagovailoa’s odds sit at 45-1 to win the award, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, with sixteen players rated ahead of him and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes the favorite at +200.
Why Bleacher Report Likes Tagovailoa’s Odds
Kay’s case rests on personnel, not sentiment. Tagovailoa was released by Miami “following a second consecutive sub-.500 campaign,” Kay wrote, a sharp fall for a passer who
“orchestrated the league’s top offense in 2023.”
The supporting cast waiting for him in Atlanta is a big part of the pitch.
“If Tagovailoa seizes the QB1 role, he’ll have the elite supporting cast led by first-round skill position stars in Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson needed to re-emerge as one of the NFL’s top passers,” Kay wrote. “Tagovailoa’s 45-1 odds for Comeback Player of the Year are simply too alluring to ignore” — Bleacher Report.
London, Pitts, and Robinson give Tagovailoa three first-round skill players in the same huddle a level of talent Miami’s roster simply didn’t offer him down the stretch, as the Dolphins’ receiving corps battled injuries for much of last season.
The QB Battle Isn’t Settled Yet
None of this matters if Tagovailoa doesn’t win the starting job first. He’s currently competing with Michael Penix Jr., who is working back from a torn ACL that ended his 2025 season early. Falcons GM Ian Cunningham confirmed the two will battle for the role, and new head coach Kevin Stefanski hasn’t shown his hand publicly.
B/R insider James Palmer has described Tagovailoa as the
“front-runner with an asterisk”
for the job, largely because Penix’s medical clearance ahead of training camp remains uncertain. Tagovailoa has taken the bulk of first-team reps this offseason, which gives him a practical edge — but Stefanski’s staff maintains the competition is genuinely open. Veterans report to Flowery Branch on July 28, with the team’s first practice July 29.
| Season | Stat | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Passer Rating | 105.5 (NFL leader) |
| 2023 | Passing Yards | 4,624 (NFL leader) |
| 2024 | Completion Percentage | 72.9% (NFL leader) |
Those three seasons are the foundation of the comeback case. Tagovailoa has led the league in a major passing category in three of the past four years, something very few quarterbacks in the sport can claim. What he hasn’t done is put a full, healthy season together since 2023 concussions and a rash of other injuries have interrupted almost every year since.
Stiff Competition for the Award
Tagovailoa isn’t the only name in this conversation. Kyler Murray, released by Arizona and now with Minnesota, is seen as a stronger favorite at +550 odds. And several bigger names Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, Micah Parsons, and others working back from major 2025 injuries will likely draw more attention throughout the season than a backup-turned-starter in Atlanta.
Still, the Falcons haven’t made the playoffs in years, and if Tagovailoa wins the job and helps break that drought, voters tend to reward exactly that kind of story. Nothing here is confirmed beyond Kay’s prediction it’s one analyst’s dark-horse call, not a forecast of what will actually happen. But the pieces talent, motive, and a fresh offensive mind in Stefanski — are all in place if Tagovailoa gets the chance.
- https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/falcons-qb-tua-tagovailoa-named-140129779.html
- https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25452234-dark-horse-candidates-win-each-nfl-award-2026-season
- https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/atlanta-falcons/falcons-tua-tagovailoa-comeback-player-award-race/
- https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/former-dolphins-qb-tua-tagovailoa-132349801.html
- https://www.rotowire.com/football/player/tua-tagovailoa-14465
