2026 NFL MVP Dark Horses: Can These 7 Teams Finally End Their Super Bowl-Era Drought?
The Green Bay Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs on January 15, 1967. That game launched the Super Bowl era. Nearly six decades later, seven NFL franchises still wait for their first AP NFL Most Valuable Player from that period.
The Philadelphia Eagles now own two Lombardi Trophies after their Super Bowl LIX win. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lifted the trophy in both of their appearances. The New York Jets shocked the world in Super Bowl III. None of those clubs has produced a regular-season MVP winner in the Lombardi Trophy era. The Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints share the same long wait.
2026 offers fresh hope. Several players stand out as legitimate dark horses. NFL.com’s Dan Parr already flagged some of them. The question is whether any can turn potential into history.
Arizona Cardinals
Jeremiyah Love landed in the desert as the No. 3 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Notre Dame running back signed a record contract for a rookie at his position. That kind of investment brings immediate pressure.
The Cardinals enter the year with a rookie head coach, clear roster gaps and the NFL’s toughest division. Love will share the backfield with veterans Tyler Allgeier and James Conner. Only one rookie has ever won AP NFL MVP — Jim Brown in 1957. No first-year player has done it since the Super Bowl era began.
Love possesses the burst and vision to change that script. He can run with power between the tackles and create after the catch. If the offensive line gives him any room and the rookie head coach finds ways to feature him early, the buzz will build fast. Arizona needs a spark. Love looks like the most realistic source.
Houston Texans
Will Anderson Jr. just became the highest-paid pass rusher in football based on average per year. He earned first-team All-Pro honors for the first time in 2025, made his second Pro Bowl and finished as runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year. His sack totals keep climbing.
Still, the odds remain long. Myles Garrett set the single-season sack record last year and never entered serious MVP talks. Defenders rarely win the award. Lawrence Taylor in 1986 remains the last one.
Anderson turns 25 this season. Houston’s identity runs through its defense. If the Texans become legitimate Super Bowl contenders and that unit carries them deep into January, Anderson’s dominance could force the conversation. He plays with a motor that never stops. One of the best young edge rushers in the game has the talent. The narrative needs to catch up.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence looked like the quarterback the Jaguars envisioned when they took him first overall in 2021. In 2025 he posted career highs in touchdown passes, QBR, rushing yards and rushing scores. He led Jacksonville to the AFC South title and reached the MVP finalist conversation.
The late surge told the real story. Eight straight wins to close the regular season. Nineteen touchdowns and five interceptions over that stretch. Completion percentage and yards per game both climbed under new coach Liam Coen.
The challenge is stacking good seasons. Lawrence has flashed before. He has never put two elite years back to back. A full offseason in Coen’s system should help. Jacksonville’s weapons and the confidence from last year’s run give him a platform. If the Jaguars keep rising in the AFC, Lawrence will stay in the MVP mix all season.
New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough took over as starter midway through his rookie year and the Saints suddenly found life. They won five of their final six games. Shough threw for 10 touchdowns and ran for three more in nine starts. The offense finally had a pulse.
Now the supporting cast looks stronger. First-round rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson joins a healthy Ja’Lynn Polk and No. 1 option Chris Olave. Free-agent addition Travis Etienne adds another dual-threat dimension in the backfield. Kellen Moore’s system gives Shough structure.
Recent MVP winners Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes both broke through in their second seasons. Shough showed enough late last year to suggest a similar leap is possible. The Superdome crowd will be loud if the Saints start fast. Momentum in New Orleans can turn electric quickly.
New York Jets
Breece Hall broke through with his first 1,000-yard rushing season in 2025 and cashed in with a big new contract. He remains a versatile weapon who can line up anywhere and create mismatches. At 25, the physical tools are still ascending.
The Jets have not reached the playoffs since 2010. That drought adds a unique layer. Hall could lead the charge back to relevance. A running back has not won MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012, but team success often sways voters. If New York returns to the postseason and Hall powers the ground game while chipping in as a receiver, his name will surface.
Quarterback Geno Smith’s story will grab headlines. Hall offers the bigger long-term upside if he puts everything together. The Jets need a face of the franchise who delivers on the field. Hall has the chance to become that player.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts already owns two Super Bowl appearances and one Lombardi Trophy. He earned Super Bowl LIX MVP honors. Three Pro Bowls sit on his résumé. He has thrown for 110 touchdowns and rushed for 63 more across six seasons and 93 starts. His record as a starter stands at 57-25.
Last season brought frustration. An 11-5 finish ended in the Wild Card round. A.J. Brown was traded to the Patriots. Sean Mannion took over as offensive coordinator. The spotlight in Philadelphia never dims, and it will burn hotter than ever in 2026.
Hurts still possesses the dual-threat ability that makes him dangerous. When the deep ball clicks and he gets loose on the ground, the Eagles become tough to stop. The franchise has not had a Super Bowl-era MVP since Norm Van Brocklin in 1960. Hurts has the résumé and the opportunity. The city will demand nothing less than elite play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield started 2025 in the middle of early MVP chatter. Then injuries piled up, the Buccaneers stumbled down the stretch and the season ended without a playoff berth. He never missed a game, but he rarely looked fully healthy on the injury report.
This offseason brought a new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson. Mayfield posted career bests in 2024 — 41 touchdowns and 4,500 passing yards. Those numbers scream MVP production. He has now started 51 straight games for Tampa Bay. Durability is not the question. Consistency is.
Tom Brady never won an MVP while wearing pewter and red. Mayfield has the arm talent and the experience to do what even the greatest quarterback in league history could not in this uniform. If the Bucs rebound in the NFC South and Mayfield plays with the confidence he showed early last year, the conversation will follow. The pieces are there for a bounce-back that resonates league-wide.




